Basic
Blackjack Strategy
Four Situations: Hit, Stand, Split, &
Double
There are four different types of situations
or possibilities that can occur in a blackjack
hand. The strategies and reasoning behind
each comes from more than 40 years of
research done by mathematicians, probability
experts, and professional gamblers.
Julian Braun, Dr. Edward Thorp, Lawrence
Revere, Stanford Wong, Arnold Snyder,
Peter Griffin, and Don Schlesinger, are
the major theorists and innovators of
the blackjack world over the last half-century,
and their legacy has contributed to the
strategies and explanations listed here.
The blackjack universe, in a simplified
sense, can be looked at, in terms of understanding
and complexity, as those who want to play
the game, but don't want to put any effort
into learning it, so they guess or go
by hunches or "feelings." This player
can only rely on, ultimately, on the luck
of the draw and chance to win.
The next level of player is interested
in the game enough so that he or she is
willing to learn what we call a "basic
strategy." By learning basic strategy,
the player elevates the level of play
and greatly enhances the possibility of
winning,
The third level of player assigns numerical
values to each card in an attempt to separate
the cards that have been played already
to determine the cards that remain, and
the mathematical odds of winning the remaining
hands. This procedure is called card counting
and is a whole world unto itself.
For our purposes, we will consider how
to elevate from the first group: the "guessers,"
into the second: those who have a basic
understanding of how to win.
All of the strategies listed are considering
two factors: your two cards compared to
the dealer's upcard, the one that is showing.
How you proceed is directly related to
both factors. One note: the basic strategies
discussed and noted here are for multiple
decks, rather that single or double.
Basic Hitting and Standing Strategies:
The Hard Hands
In blackjack we talk of hard hands and
soft hands. This has nothing to do with
the type of work one does for a living.
A hard hand or total is one that does
not involve an Ace, while a soft hand
means that one of your cards is an Ace.
This requires special consideration.
The important number to remember here
is 17. It is the cutoff point for deciding
whether to ask the dealer for more cards
or not. Each numerical card is counted
as its printed value, i.e. a 2 of clubs
is counted as a 2. A 7 of hearts is counted
as a 7. Suits are not considered of any
importance. It is the numerical value
that counts.
All face cards count as 10s, with no exceptions.
It doesn't matter whether the card is
a Jack of hearts, a Queen of spades or
a King of clubs. The problem child here
is the Ace, which can be counted as either
a 1 or 11. This card can lead to a great
deal of confusion (see "soft hands").
Dealer has a 7-10 showing
Suffice to say that a 17 remains your
cutoff. Requesting a card or a hit on
17 or above will do two things: it will
mark you as a rank amateur and will send
all of the other players at your table
fleeing in abject terror.
If 17 is your cutoff, you need to remember
that 6 is the cutoff for the dealer's
upcard in determining how you play it,
with the deuce or 2 being the exception
to the rule (see The Terror of the Twos).
Remember: everything is relative to the
card that the dealer is showing.
If the dealer has a 3-6, you have a better
chance of winning than if the dealer is
showing a 2, 9, 10 (or face card) or Ace.
Seven and eight fall in the middle.
General blackjack theory says that 18.3
is the calculated average hand needed
to win. In other words, anything less
than a 19 (since you can't possibly get
fractions in blackjack), is a potentially
losing hand. So here it is in a nutshell:
if the dealer is showing a 7, 8,9, or
10-value card, you will need to take a
card if you have less than a 17.
With a 17, you are between a rock and
a hard place. The math of the game says
you can't take a card, but now, all you
can do is sit tight and hope that the
dealer has a 10 if the dealer is showing
a 7. In this case you tie, or "push."
You don't win, but you don't lose. From
this hand, you escape.
If the dealer has an 8, 9, or 10-value
card, you have to hope that there is a
4, 5,6, or 7 in the hole. That will make
the dealer need to take a third card and
this might put his/her hand over the total
of 21, with a busted hand.
When you receive a hard 17, 18, 19, or
20, there is nothing to do except sit
back and hope that the dealer's hand isn't
as good. You merely indicate to the dealer
that you don't want a card and want to
stand. Obviously, with a 21 or blackjack,
you're sitting on top of the world.
Intermediate Blackjack Strategy
Dealer has a 3-6 showing
This situation is more favorable of the
player as the dealer has a better chance
of going over the total of 21, or busting.
As stated above, if you have a hard-hand
total of 17 or above, there is nothing
to do but stand and wait.
But now, you need to remember that if
you have a hard hand of 12-16, that is
not a pair, you also stand. So if the
dealer has a 3-6, and you have a 12-20
that is not a pair, it is easy: you stand
pat.
If you do have a pair please see the section
on pairs. With a hand of 3-11, you have
options. Most of these involve choices
between hitting and doubling. Please keep
in mind that this is not a matter hunches.
The responses here come from decades of
computer analysis and development.
The Terror of the Twos
You're sitting on a King and a 9, feeling
smug because the dealer is showing a measly
deuce. You rightfully wave away his request
for a hit, feeling confident. The dealer's
turn comes and he nonchalantly pulls an
8 out from the hole, then draws a Jack.
Your confident smile is quickly transformed
into a mad glare. You've been taken, swindled,
robbedwell, not really. You've just come
up against the single toughest card: the
terrible two. You might think the Ace
is tough because the dealer might have
a blackjack. It might startle you to understand
that the dealer will beat you more times
with that slick 2 than not.
If you think of it this way, a 2 is like
the perfect food or beverage: it will
go with anything (kind of like the girls
on Fremont at night). I'll put it this
way: With a 2 up, a 6, 7, 8, or 9 in the
hole becomes a real problem for the bettor,
because if a 10 follows, the dealer is
sitting on a winning hand.
If an Ace, 2, 3, 4, or 5 appears and there's
a run of small cards, you're still in
trouble. The best of all worlds is if
the dealer pulls a 10-value card from
the hole and draws another 10. You're
made in the shade and can relax.
The direct opposite end of this problematic
hand is when it is your own. Basic strategy
says that when you have a 12 versus the
dealer's 2, you hunker down in your seat,
gird your loins and take the hit.
For some reason, your player's12 seems
to be a magnet for any face card within
a five-casino range, but, because of the
fore-mentioned strength of that 2, you
are probably sitting with a losing hand
with a 12 anyway, so you might as well
try to improve your position.
A 13 through 20 against a 2 makes life
easy: You stand pat.
When you have a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,or 8 versus
the dealer's 2, you hit it until you get
past 12.
When you have a 9,10 or 11, you double
down.
See the chart on right for reference.
The Soft Hands
In this section lies the problem children
of the blackjack table. These are the
hands that cause the greatest bewilderment,
the most consternation and fluttering
intestinal butterflies.
One funny story: A woman who was playing
blackjack very tentatively. She received
an Ace and a 5 with the dealer showing
a 7. When it was her turn, she examined
her cards questioningly, shook her head
a couple of times before declining to
hit. The dealer looked at her and asked
if she was sure. She answered, "positively."
As the hand played out and the dealer
pulled an Ace out of the hole to finish
with 20, he looked at the woman and asked
her why she had stayed on a 6 or soft
16, to a dealer's 9. She answered that
she had already counted the Ace as an
11 in her mind, and she was afraid of
getting a face card.
The point of this story is that you can
count the Ace as either a 1 or 11 at any
point you chose. There is no signed warrant
you must follow. The soft hands provide
a great deal of trouble partly because
how you treat them really varies with
the situation, i.e. the dealer's up card.
The important thing to remember is not
to get flustered when faced with a soft
hand. Think of it as an opportunity, rather
than a problem.
See the chart on right for reference.
Doubling
There is an old adage in blackjack that
states: lay low and make your doubles
and leave a winner. The phrase carries
a great deal of validity:
Doubling or double downs will make or
break you. You are putting up twice as
much money in an attempt to double it.
These are the bets that count. Keep in
mind that in most locales you will receive
only one card when you double and you
are not allowed to double after you've
already received a third or fourth card.
There are certain doubles that are automatic:
always double 11. The hope here is that
you'll get the 10-value card and walk
home a winner. Even if you don't, it is
possible to draw a card that will help
your hand beat the dealer or the dealer
will bust.
Try to avoid doubling off a hunch or a
feeling. You want to use these opportunities
in the best fashion. One note: if after
you double, with the dealer showing a
10-value card, and an Ace is overturned,
giving the dealer a blackjack, most casinos
give you the second part of your bet back,
instead of taking all of it.
Advance Blackjack Strategy
Splitting : Like the doubling situation
above, these are the hands that will make
or break you. There is one rule here hard
and fast: don't split 5s, and don't split
10s for opposite reasons.
With the 5s you are turning a hand that
should be counted as a 10 and either doubled
or hit into two hands of five each, that
turn into potential problems when decorated
with 7,8,9,or 10. With the two 10-value
cards, you are asking for trouble taking
a nice pat 20, doubling your original
bet size, and getting stuck with a 2-7
twice. If you don't think this happens,
ask any practitioner.
What you want to do is maximize your opportunities.
Aces are the cards that you do want to
split, and this is a special situation.
With the Ace, in most casinos, you are
allowed only one card after you split
them. Obviously, you are hoping for a
10 on each.
The thought here is that if you don't
split your Aces, you have a cumulative
value of 2. The danger here is that if
you draw 2 10-value cards in a row, not
at all unusual, you will bust. You are
also trying to maximize your opportunities
by turning a single bet into twice that
amount.
Insurance
The dealer will turn to you and ask if
you would like insurance if he or she
is showing an Ace. Time-worn advice suggests
that because the odds of the dealer having
a blackjack are about 1 in 3, you answer
no.
Insurance means that you are allowed to
wager up to one-half your bet that there
is a blackjack or a 10-value card in the
hole. You lose the bet if the dealer does
not have blackjack, but get paid what
you bet for insurance if there is one.
However, there is some flexibility here.
Suppose you have played about a quarter
of a shoe and you have noticed that there
have been very few 10-value cards seen
(Note: it is always a good habit to keep
track of the cards that have been played,
if you can.).
In this situation, you might elect to
take insurance based on your observation
and the fact that the deck is rich in
10s.
But generally speaking, it is wise to
decline insurance. Just wave it off.
Luck, Steaks, Charms, Incantations and
the Doo factor
The old casino saying goes something like:
"I'd rather be lucky than good." I can
personally attest to one incident after
another of players who made horrendous
decisions winning hand after hand, while
sitting at the same table with a player
who has been around a while, but can't
seem to win on 20.
It happens all the time. Naturally, the
problem here is a momentary turn of events
that one wouldn't want to count on repeatedly.
Anyone can get lucky, but it takes some
knowledge to be able to play and win on
a regular basis.
Some people seem to be naturally lucky,
while others appear the opposite. Most
of us fall somewhere in the middle. We
have our lucky streaks and times when
we can't locate our own toes.
If you are losing steadily at a table,
don't stay. Take a break to clear your
head, go for a walk, change tables, alter
the situation. One response to this situation
that heard time-after-time is: "I'm due."
That due factor has as much to do with
reality as George Foreman winning the
Boston Marathon.
If you're on a losing steak, don't try
to force it. Live again to play another
day.
Money Management
Much is said concerning this topic, but
little understood, and less practiced.
There are a cookbook full of recipes for
disaster known as betting systems, almost
all of which will lead to a precarious
chance of risking more and more money
in the misguided hope of recovering some
money already lost.
One of the more popular betting systems
says to double your bet until you win.
Only two problems here: you might not
win until you hit the table maximum, or
you might just run out of money first.
Here's the scenario: you buy in for $100
at a $10 table and lose the first hand.
This system calls for you to put $20 down,
and you lose again. The third hand now
calls for you to be $40, and you again
lose. In order to follow this betting
pattern, you need to buy in for more money
because you've exhausted almost _ of your
original buy-in.
So you purchase another $100 worth of
chips and bet $80, only to lose for the
fourth hand in a row, not all that uncommon.
You are down $150, in just four bets.
You buy $150 worth of chips, bet $160
to double your previous bet of $80, and
lo-and-behold, you lose the fifth. (actually
you feel like drinking one at this point.).
Buying in once more and betting $320,
you lose that as well. You are now out
$630, and the thought of betting $640
to make your original profit of $10 seems
a little far-fetched and illogical, but
you so desperately want to leave the table
on a winning note, that you do it. And
lose for eight losses in a row! If you
think it can't happen to you, think again.
(see the section on streaks.).
From your original $10 bet, you are now
out $1270! Ouch! And the table limit is
$1000. Now what? You could slink away
with your tail between your legs, or go
to a table with higher limits and hope
for the better there. With the way your
luck is running, you don't want to try
crossing the street in traffic. You may
not make it to the other side.
The best money management system is time-honored
and very simple: Bet less when you are
losing and more when you are winning.
Easy to say, hard to do. The casinos know
that if they get you in a place where
you are losing steadily, the chances are
that you might start to "chase" your losses
with even larger amounts of money in an
attempt to get out of the hole you've
dug. Advice: go slowly and don't try to
hit home runs.
If you find that you are winning on a
steady basis, whatever the reason, try
betting a little bit more. There is a
saying around the casino: "I've won and
I'm playing with their money." It isn't
their money. If you won the money, then
it is yours to keep, and any you lose
will be coming from the same pocket. Do
you think the casino managers talk in
those same terms, saying to each other,
"Ah hah! We won this much today. Now we're
playing with their money?!"
Follow this advice: Leave when you have
won. If you bought in for $100 and you
have doubled your money, take it and run!
The odds are with the casino that the
longer you stay and play, the better chance
you have of losing it.
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